Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2241314
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $400.00
BB: $490.68
UTG: $694.00
CO: $346.00
BTN: $228.02
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with J
J
UTG raises to $12, CO calls $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, 1 fold, UTG calls $36, 1 fold
Flop: ($112.00) 2
3 5 (2 players)Hero bets $58, UTG calls $58
Turn: ($228.00) 2
(2 players)Hero bets $294 all in, UTG calls $294
River: ($816.00) 3
(2 players - 1 is all in)Final Pot: $816.00
Hero shows J
J (two pair, Jacks and Threes)UTG shows 6
6 (two pair, Sixes and Threes)Hero wins $813.00
(Rake: $3.00)
MP good hand reader. His bet sizing always surprise me. Very well balanced. OR 18 Fold to 3bet 50 and fold vs sqz 60. CO is donk ft3bet 20 60/40. I was a little worried about getting traped by QQ+ but.... My thinking process went this way. If he thinks about the sizing a lot, he can misinterpret mine. My level was: My standard sizing here on this blank turn with value would be ~100€ or even less. Decided to look, as FD or anything what need FEq. Not sure if I can extend calling range by this sizing, but this time it worked.
How would you perceived my range on this turn while overbetting?
IMO on basic level it looks like "hi, I have some equity but I need some FEq too so I overbet shove u bitch!", but tbh if he consider u very good player he should predict that it`s value hand (TT+ I guess) and fold sixes ;)
ReplyDeletebabel
Yeah, but I still have feeling that people see me bluffing everywhere. For ex last calldawn with AQ on AK692 CO vs BTN wtf?
DeleteHey. I, on the other hand, have a question regarding a hand that you played in one of your videos for PS ('Obrona vs re-steal'). I'm talking about the Q9s hand in 23:40.
ReplyDeleteAlthough your overall thinking process is fairly understandable to me, I'm having a hard time with the turn play here. You said that by checking back the turn you wanna extend his betting range on the river and that's okay.
However, being consistent with your flop argumentation, as his bet/calling range contains hands like 76/TJ/worse 9x/FD/Kx(?), you said that by checking it back, you wanna induce a bet from the whole range and you don't want him to fold hands like 9x or w/e. Also, you said that you don't wanna get a x/r there and be forced to fold probably the best hand. I don't know if you've noticed, but he hasn't x/r the turn so far (0/2) and also his bluff sizing is 1/2 PSB, which means that we might be expecting a bet of that size on the river.
So I launched equilab and, basically, his b/c range on the flop accounts for ~2.5%.
{Q9s,J9s+,T9s,76s,AhQh,AhJh,QhJh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h} for example
Now, if we bet, you said that he would most defenitely fold 9x from his range, leaving us versus 1.6%
afterwards.
{JTs,76s,AhQh,AhJh,QhJh,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h}
So putting all the info together, we might be expecting him to bet 100% of his 2,5% range with his bluff sizing (1/2) = we earn 1/2 PSB on average.
Now, if we bet, we get a call from 1.6%/2.5% ~64% of this range, so while betting the 3/4 PSB, we earn...1/2 PSB on average as well.
I'm not taking the better hands like Kx under consideration here, cuz they've got us beaten and he probably bets them with a sizing different from the mentioned 1/2, so that doesn't do us any good.
So putting all the info together, don't you think that the only difference that your checking behind makes is
leaving him with a free equity + not being able to comfortably call on some of the rivers?
I didn't know whether to write in Polish or English, but as the whole blog is in English and due to Bąbel's comment, I've decided not to stand out. =)
Thanks in advance and keep up the good work!
Best regards. :>
Sick post man. Very interesting and fresh. I hadd to read it 3 times or even more. First of all feel free to write in any language you want. I've some Canadian, Russian, Australian and UK followers, maybe they're trying to figure out why polish guys are soooo good :-)
DeleteAccording to your post. x/r on the turn is 1/7 but it doesn't matter - to small sample. Reviewing this type of hands vs a guy with ~50% of range it's not east. Probably we will never know who is closer to the truth. In my opinion you shouldn't use as tight range as you presented. He has more like this:
QdJd, QsJs, QcJc, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, JdTd, JsTs, JcTc, Ad9d, As9s, Ac9c, Qd9d, Qs9s, Qc9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Jc9c, Td9d, Ts9s, Tc9c, Kd8d, Ks8s, Kc8c, Jd8d, Js8s, Jc8c, Td8d, Ts8s, Tc8c, Kd7d, Ks7s, Kc7c, 8d7d, 8s7s, 8c7c, Kd6d, Ks6s, Kc6c, 7d6d, 7s6s, 7c6c, Kd5d, Ks5s, Kc5c, 6d5d, 6s5s, 6c5c, Kd4d, Ks4s, Kc4c, Kd3d, Ks3s, Kc3c, Kd2d, Ks2s, Kc2c, A9o, K8o-K2o, Q9o+, JTo
And few baby flush draws. I assumed that he shoves all higher flush draws on the flop. We don't know also If he's capable of x/shoving the turn with some FD or not. We don't know what he does with hands like 78 on the river maybe he bets maybe he checks. Sooo x/back is more psychological than optimal play. You are not capable of doing this math while playing.
I think we're both right. Never even thought about betting this turn before reading your post, so I'd like to thank you :) Keep commenting and I promise to update as often as I can!
Wow, I defenitely wasn't expecting that. I mean, apart from the fact that your videos are of tremendous help to me as a beginner, you have no idea how great it is to hear that I could have somehow contributed to your rethinking the spot and noticing some new things. ; )
ReplyDeleteAnyway, puting all the info together:
-we don't know if he'd x/shove the turn with draws,
-we don't know if he'd bet the river 100% of the time in this particular spot
So, lacking those info, can we assume that he'd play his draws passively on the turn?
-due to the fact that our perceived range here is rather strong than weak and that he wouldn't be seeing any fold equity there,
-what also leads us to the conclusion that he might back-off even on the river (alright, he betted 3/3 so far, but we don't know if he'd be happy to do it after the flop play).
-about the range - if it's wider, it's even better for us! - your range contributes ~15% of hands, where after
we bet the turn, it leaves us with 13% (we fold out 9x, including A9 - better hand!), so 13/15 = 86% of hands
would be calling our 3/4 bet => we earn ~0,65 psb on average!
-if we xback the turn, with the read that he bluffs with 1/2 psb sizing and as you said that you've selected the
river cards that you'd be calling on, you're able to play perfectly on the river, what is cool, _but_, notice, that
due to the previous arguments 1)he might not be betting a 100% of his range there, 2) there are some rivers that you can't be calling on, 3) he'd realize his equity vs your hand some % of the time
So putting this together again, betting the turn gives you a more certain, safer, more profitable play there imo.
Not only you extract more value from hands that might not pay you off on the river 100% of the time, but you're also able to fold out some equity on you, including better hands like A9, you buy yourself a free SD and you avoid folding some % of the rivers vs practically the same range that calls your turn bet + you don't allow him to realize his equity on you, however big it is.
As I said - I'm a beginner and I realise that my game is far from perfect, but as I'm prioritizing theoretical knowledge over the play now, I still though 'what the hell' - even if it helps you come to yet another conclusion regarding anything, really, I assumed it's still worth putting this wall of text out here. ;D
Peace out!